Welcome to Roger's Economic Rant
Late November 2018 Economic Rant -Roger Mason
NO ONE DIED AT THE BORDERLINE BAR IN CA
Wolf Blitzer on CNN showed a live video of the supposed slaughter. There were only about three people in the bar. There was no music. There was no dancing. Only nine shots were fired. This was supposed to be a live video of the shooting. The official story is that hundreds of young people were line dancing to loud country music. The gunman somehow fired dozens and dozens of shots from a pistol. Gosh, what kind of pistol is that with such endless firepower? No, you can't switch magazines in the middle of a mass murder. Another fake shooting to take our guns away. The sheeple lapped it up. Why did CNN show video proof that nothing happened?
SILVER AND GOLD ARE BOTTOMING
The COT report on the 2nd was positive. The commercials dropped 32,000 shorts, and are new 26,000 net short. The dropped 3,000 silver shorts, and are now 10,000 net short. The silver open interest (number of total futures contracts) is 209,000, and this is bad for us. On the 9th they added 7,000 gold shorts. They are now 38,000 net short. They added 10,000 silver shorts. They are now 19,000 net short. The OI is now up to 220,000. We are not going to have the Final Bottom by Christmas after all. February looks a little more realistic. Expect one more downdraft in prices. This would give the commercials a chance to exit their shorts, reverse, and go long, and even buy physical bullion. In 1940 and 1990- just 38 years ago- the gold to silver ratio reached 100 to 1. It could happen again. We think 85 to 1 is as bad as it can get, but that isn't true. With the commercials on the long side after about 30 years, it will be Blue Skies for us. Be patient, and be thankful this is coming to an end after almost eight years.
Below is a 100 year chart of the gold to silver ratio. It's going back to the real world ratio of 15 to 1. Why? Because that's the ratio of how much appears in the earth's crust. That's why. Until about 1900 that was the historical, normal, accept ratio- 15 to 1. That would make silver $1,500 if gold goes to $10,000.
100 YEAR GOLD TO SILVER RATIO
HOUSING CRASH STARTED NOVEMBER 2017
The below fifty-nine year chart shows the standard of living has totally deteriorated in America since 1959. This is an update of the chart that we published several months ago. It is from www.advisorperspectives.com, and this is an excellent website. Back in the 1960 area most blue collar folks could own their own home. Home ownership was a given for the middle class. Now home ownership is only for the skilled blue collar people and the thrifty, educated middle class and above. Housing Crash 2 is accelerating. You have your multiple warnings. There are always clear and multiple warning prior to big events. History proves great events cast their shadows before them. You can see from this chart that most people can no longer afford to own a home. This shows housing starts as a percent of the population. Americans are no longer home owners.
THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST HOUSING CRASH IN HISTORY
The homebuilders crash before the home prices crash. Remember this, as it is very important to know. In April 2006 the DJUSHB Index started falling well before the 2008 crash. It peaked at 988 in April. It bottomed in July 2011 over five years later at 183. That is an 81% crash!!! Let's be clear about this....988 to 183 in five and one quarter years. In October 2017 it peaked again at 939. It has already fallen to the 600 level and will keep falling until it breaks 200. No one else is telling you these details. The home builders are our warning and will keep crashing. Look at this one year chart:
We always have warnings if you just open pay attention. Commiefornia is the best warning right now!!! The housing market there is collapsing faster all the time. This is where the crash started in 2008, and where it started a year ago. As goes Commiefornia, so goes the nation. 168 years of history proves that. Zillow says the median U.S. home price is down to $200,000 from over $230,000 earlier this year. Funny, none of this is reported in the news media. The median U.S. home price in 1950 IN INFLATION ADJUSTED DOLLARS was only $45,000. You will see the median American home sell for $100,000 before this is over. No, it won't recover ever. America is finished. This will be followed by a stock crash. Then a bond crash. Then a dollar crash. Finally a derivatives crash.
HOUSING CRASH ACCELERATES WITH ZILLOW GROUP (Z)
Think of Zillow Group as representing the entire housing market. Kind of a "derivative" of the whole real estate market. It fell 27% on the 7th. 27% in one day!!!! It has gone from 67 to 31 in only four months. This is huge folks. Most people have never even heard of Zillow Group, much less monitor it.
HAROLD ROSENTHAL IS BACK
NYC PENSIONERS WILL NEVER GET PAID
New York City needs $103 billion (that's billion with a "b") to pay the pensions they owe. There are 300,000 employees, and 230,000 retirees. The most heavily populated city in America. They only have $5 billion. That is less than 5% of what they need. All city, county, state, federal, union, and private pensions are broke, and cannot possibly pay the pensions they currently owe. NYC is just one of countless cities that have bankrupt pension funds. If you work for the city for only 10 years you get lifetime free health care! Can you believe that? Unions gone insane.
Let's bring up the fact Social Insecurity has been bankrupt for decades. It's a Ponzi scheme and always has been. Payments are not indexed to inflation. Every year the Social Insecurity check buys less and less and less.
STOCKS ARE TOTALLY OVERVALUED AND WILL CRASH
Look at this rare 150 year chart of the price to earning ratio of the stock market. Look how the high P/E ratios clearly predicted crashes. 1929, 1966, 2000. We simply cannot have a P/E ratio of 31. That's not real and it cannot be sustained. About 15 to1 would be reasonable. We're in a mania bubble, and it's going to burst. If it bursts in the next two years, the liberals will all blame Trump. Then we could get Oprah, Pocahantas, Hillary, Tricky Nikki, or even Michele "The Man" Obama for president. Don't think this can't happen. The media will get the candidate they want. The sheeple don't think; they just listen to the media.
GENERAL ELECTRIC REMOVED FROM THE DOW!!! AFTER 122 YEARS
General Electric has been listed on the stock exchange since 1896- 122 years!!! It has been removed. It is the 13th largest company in America, but no longer traded on the Dow Jones. This is just one of many ways the stock markets are manipulated. Weak stocks are removed, and strong stocks substituted. That way you get a very misleading picture of how the general markets are actually performing.
CANADA MAY LEGALIZE ALL DRUGS EVENTUALLY
In January, Toronto-area MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith told CBC Toronto's Metro Morning he believes all illegal drugs should be decriminalized and eventually legalized. In 1970 Congress passed the onerous Comprehensive Drug Act, and Nixon started the infamous War on Drugs. He declared drug use, "Public Enemy Number One". Since then America became an outright police state, jail populations exploded, and the Constitution and Bill of Rights were destroyed. The real point here is that DRUG USE EXPLODED after the act was passed. Right, the more laws you pass, the more people use drugs. It's a fact. They got exactly the opposite of what they were trying to do. When just drug possession is legalized (as in the Czech Republic and Portugal) drug use falls. There is no more forbidden allure, sexiness, or rebellion when drugs are legal.
"A free people ought not only to be armed, but disciplined. But they should have sufficient arms and ammunition to maintain a status of independence from any who might attempt to abuse them, which would include their own government."
HALF OF AMERICANS GET MORE WELFARE THAN SALARY
We already have full bore socialism in America. Socialism is based on the redistribution of wealth by the government. Lenin said socialism is the bridge to communism. We are now headed for full bore communism. Free market capitalism is a thing of the past. In socialist countries everyone is equally poor except for the top 1% party members.
WAR ON DRUGS IN NOT ABOUT DRUGS- IT'S ABOUT CONTROL
The war on drugs was a war on black people as well as freedom. This 50 year chart shows that black people were inordinately locked up for any kind of drug "crime".
Remember that Magic Era around 1970 when America was not yet a totalitarian police state? In the last 50 years everything has changed for the worse. This is when Tricky Dick Nixon started his insane, draconian War On Drugs!!! He proclaimed drug use, "is the worst crisis we face". The war on drugs is about CONTROL and nothing less. This turned America into a police state. Now we have less than 5% of the world population, but 25% of the world prison inmates. This was also a war on black people. The prison population literally exploded after 1970 and blacks were targeted terribly. All drugs were legal in America for 137 years until the psychotic 1913 Narcotic Act. All drugs should be legal today for all adults. Yes, that includes heroin, methamphetamine, cocaine, PCP, morphine, and anything else you can name. People who commit any crime (including jaywalking) while under the influence of drugs would get doubled penalties. All the drug cartels, drug gangs, drug dealers would be out of business overnight. All the false allure, empty charisma, and rebellion would disappear. Drug use would fall dramatically.
NON-HOUSING CONSUMER DEBT GOING BALLISTIC
Just in the last 12 years Americans are now drowning in debt. They are up to their eyeballs in debt they can never repay. As usual most people are living over their heads. Why not live within your means? Thanks to www.wolfstreet.com.
This is obviously not sustainable and can't go on. What can't go on, won't go on. Debt cannot endlessly be piled up year after year after year. The chickens come home to roost finally and the Much Greater Depression will pay off this incomprehensible debt. The real question is why do most Americans live over their heads, beyond their means? Why not live within your means without debt?
While the below chart looks awful, it really understates the matter completely. The Federal Debt is north of $200 trillion dollars, not the ridiculous $21 trillion you see on TV. Our Gross Domestic Product falls further every year despite the growing population. This fake news is right from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. The problem is TEN TIMES worse than what you see on this chart. Sorry we don't have one that shows it.
THIS PICTURE WOULD BE WORTH 10,000 WORDS
Here's another severely understated chart claiming our national debt is merely $21 trillion. That could be paid off with time and austerity and budget cuts. That would only be about $60,000 per person. Right now is it $600,000 per person, or $2.4 million for a family of four. Every baby, every infant, every child, every teenager, every adult, and every old person owes $600,000 each. You will pay that off in the Great Reset, the greatest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen. The Much Greater Depression is coming, and you better be prepared.
As soon as we went off the gold standard right around that Magic Time of 1970, it all went to Hell on a rocket ship. Until then we had real money, real Silver Certificates, real silver coins. A real silver dollar (3/4 ounce of silver) will buy you four gallons of gasoline today. A silver quarter will buy you one gallon of gasoline.
GOLD AND SILVER AT 300 YEAR HISTORICAL LOWS
Look at this 300 year chart from John Williams at www.shadowstats.com. It applies equally to silver. This is adjusted for inflation. You cannot go wrong buying either gold or silver now. You just can't. Silver, of course, is the much better choice, and will far outperform gold. These are the two most undervalued assets on earth. Real estate, stocks, bonds, all currencies, and derivatives are the most overvalued. All paper will be worth paper.
MINIMUM WAGE IS A BAD JOKE
First of all, there should be no minimum wage whatsoever. We've come to accept socialist schemes like minimum wage as normal and "right". Let the free market decide what wages should be. Trade unions are always socialist inventions to unbalance the workings of a free market. Look at that Magic 1970 Era again. This is when people were affluent. Then we left the gold standard and it all went to Hell due to money printing and inflation.
AMERICA IS A ONE PARTY SOCIALIST STATE
The only political party in America is the Warmonger Republicrat Party. Two sides of the same coin. Two wings of the same bird. The Libertarian Party is dead after being taken over by the liberals. The Communist Green Party is picking up speed, just like in Socialist Europe. If voting mattered, we wouldn't be allowed to vote! All this talk about the fight between Trump and the mysterious "Deep State" is pure theatre. Israel is the Deep State, and Trump's loyalty is to Satanyahu. Voting in America has the same meaning as it does in Myranmar, Cuba, and North Korea. Voting for what you feel is the Lesser Evil is not freedom in any sense.
Buy silver bullion and hold it yourself. Sell any stocks or bonds. Sell your IRA or 401k. Prep and be ready for what is ahead of us. Move out of the cities and crowded suburbs if you possibly can. See you in December. Happy Thanksgiving!
www.youngagain.org Young Again is a trademark of Young Again Products, Inc., Wilmington, N. C. Copyright (c) 2005, 2006 Young Again Products, Inc., Wilmington, N.C. All Rights Reserved